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			PubMed Journals: J Clin Med

  Source:		PMID: 32102279


    		J Clin Med. 2020 Feb 24;9(2). pii: E601. doi:
     		10.3390/jcm9020601.

			Assessing the Impact of Reduced Travel on
			Exportation Dynamics of Novel
			Coronavirus Infection (COVID-19).

			Anzai A(1), Kobayashi T(1), Linton NM(1),
			Kinoshita R(1), Hayashi K(1), Suzuki A(1), Yang
			Y(1), Jung SM(1), Miyama T(2), Akhmetzhanov
			AR(1), Nishiura H(1)(3).

			Author Information
			(1) Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido
			University, Kita 15 Jo Nishi 7 Chome, Kita-ku,
			Sapporo-shi, Hokkaido 060-8638, Japan.
			(2) Osaka Institute of Public Health, Nakamichi
			1-3-69, Higashinari, Osaka 537-0025, Japan.
			(3) CREST,
			Japan Science and Technology Agency,
			Honcho 4-1-8, Kawaguchi, Saitama 332-0012,
			Japan.

			The impact of the drastic reduction in travel
			volume within mainland China in January and
			February 2020 was quantified with respect to
			reports of novel coronavirus (COVID-19)
			infections outside China. Data on confirmed
			cases diagnosed outside China were analyzed
			using statistical models to estimate the impact
			of travel reduction on three epidemiological
			outcome measures: (i) the number of exported
			cases, (ii) the probability of a major epidemic,
			and (iii) the time delay to a major epidemic.
			From 28 January to 7 February 2020, we
			estimated that 226 exported cases (95%
			confidence interval: 86,449) were prevented,
			corresponding to a 70.4% reduction in
			incidence compared to the counterfactual
			scenario. The reduced probability of a major
			epidemic ranged from 7% to 20% in Japan,
			which resulted in a median time delay to a
			major epidemic of two days. Depending on the
			scenario, the estimated delay may be less than
			one day. As the delay is small, the decision to
			control travel volume through restrictions on
			freedom of movement should be balanced
			between the resulting estimated
			epidemiological impact and predicted economic
			fallout.

			DOI: 10.3390/jcm9020601 PMID: 32102279

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