PubMed Journals: J Clin Med
Source: PMID: 32102279⇦⇨ J Clin Med. 2020 Feb 24;9(2). pii: E601. doi:
⇩10.3390/jcm9020601.
Assessing the Impact of Reduced Travel on
Exportation Dynamics of Novel
Coronavirus Infection (COVID-19).
Anzai A^{(1)}, Kobayashi T^{(1)}, Linton NM^{(1)},
Kinoshita R^{(1)}, Hayashi K^{(1)}, Suzuki A^{(1)}, Yang
Y^{(1)}, Jung SM^{(1)}, Miyama T^{(2)}, Akhmetzhanov
AR^{(1)}, Nishiura H^{(1)}^{(3)}.
Author Information
(1) Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido
University, Kita 15 Jo Nishi 7 Chome, Kita-ku,
Sapporo-shi, Hokkaido 060-8638, Japan.
(2) Osaka Institute of Public Health, Nakamichi
1-3-69, Higashinari, Osaka 537-0025, Japan.
(3) CREST,
Japan Science and Technology Agency,
Honcho 4-1-8, Kawaguchi, Saitama 332-0012,
Japan.
The impact of the drastic reduction in travel
volume within mainland China in January and
February 2020 was quantified with respect to
reports of novel coronavirus (COVID-19)
infections outside China. Data on confirmed
cases diagnosed outside China were analyzed
using statistical models to estimate the impact
of travel reduction on three epidemiological
outcome measures: (i) the number of exported
cases, (ii) the probability of a major epidemic,
and (iii) the time delay to a major epidemic.
From 28 January to 7 February 2020, we
estimated that 226 exported cases (95%
confidence interval: 86,449) were prevented,
corresponding to a 70.4% reduction in
incidence compared to the counterfactual
scenario. The reduced probability of a major
epidemic ranged from 7% to 20% in Japan,
which resulted in a median time delay to a
major epidemic of two days. Depending on the
scenario, the estimated delay may be less than
one day. As the delay is small, the decision to
control travel volume through restrictions on
freedom of movement should be balanced
between the resulting estimated
epidemiological impact and predicted economic
fallout.
DOI: 10.3390/jcm9020601PMID: 32102279⇧TweetPrint