PubMed Journals: J Evid Based Med
Source: PMID: 32048815
⇦ ⇨ J Evid Based Med. 2020 Feb 12. doi:
⇩ 10.1111/jebm.12376. [Epub ahead of print]
Preliminary prediction of the basic reproduction
number of the Wuhan novel coronavirus
Zhou T(1), Liu Q(2), Yang Z(3), Liao J(4), Yang
K(2), Bai W(5), Lu X(6), Zhang W(7).
(1) Big Data Research Center,
University of Electronic Science and Technology of China,
Chengdu, 611731, China.
(2) College of Computer Science,
Sichuan University, Chengdu, 610065, China.
(3) Beijing AiQiYi Science & Technology Co.
Ltd., Beijing, 100080, China.
(4) Shenzhen International Graduate School,
Tsinghua University, Shenzhen, 518055, China.
(5) CompleX Lab, University of Electronic
Science and Technology of China, Chengdu,
(6) College of Systems Engineering, National
University of Defense Technology, Changsha,
(7) West China Biomedical Big Data Center,
West China Hospital, Sichuan University,
Chengdu, 610047, China.
OBJECTIVES: To estimate the basic
reproduction number of the Wuhan novel
coronavirus (2019-nCoV). METHODS: Based
on the susceptible-exposed-infected-removed
(SEIR) compartment model and the assumption
that the infectious cases with symptoms
occurred before 26 January, 2020 are resulted
from free propagation without intervention, we
estimate the basic reproduction number of
2019-nCoV according to the reported
confirmed cases and suspected cases, as well
as the theoretical estimated number of infected
cases by other research teams, together with
some epidemiological determinants learned
from the severe acute respiratory syndrome
(SARS). RESULTS: The basic reproduction
number fall between 2.8 and 3.3 by using the
real-time reports on the number of
2019-nCoV-infected cases from People's Daily
in China and fall between 3.2 and 3.9 on the
basis of the predicted number of infected cases
from international colleagues. CONCLUSIONS:
The early transmission ability of 2019-nCoV is
close to or slightly higher than SARS. It is a
controllable disease with moderate to high
transmissibility. Timely and effective control
measures are needed to prevent the further
©2020 Chinese Cochrane Center, West China
Hospital of Sichuan University and John Wiley &
Sons Australia, Ltd.
DOI: 10.1111/jebm.12376 PMID: 32048815