*nlm.life
			PubMed Journals: J Evid Based Med

  Source:		PMID: 32048815


    		J Evid Based Med. 2020 Feb 12. doi:
     		10.1111/jebm.12376. [Epub ahead of print]

			Preliminary prediction of the basic reproduction
			number of the Wuhan novel coronavirus
			2019-nCoV.

			Zhou T(1), Liu Q(2), Yang Z(3), Liao J(4), Yang
			K(2), Bai W(5), Lu X(6), Zhang W(7).

			Author Information
			(1) Big Data Research Center,
			University of Electronic Science and Technology of China,
			Chengdu, 611731, China.
			(2) College of Computer Science,
			Sichuan University, Chengdu, 610065, China.
			(3) Beijing AiQiYi Science & Technology Co.
			Ltd., Beijing, 100080, China.
			(4) Shenzhen International Graduate School,
			Tsinghua University, Shenzhen, 518055, China.
			(5) CompleX Lab, University of Electronic
			Science and Technology of China, Chengdu,
			611731, China.
			(6) College of Systems Engineering, National
			University of Defense Technology, Changsha,
			410073, China.
			(7) West China Biomedical Big Data Center,
			West China Hospital, Sichuan University,
			Chengdu, 610047, China.

			OBJECTIVES: To estimate the basic
			reproduction number of the Wuhan novel
			coronavirus (2019-nCoV). METHODS: Based
			on the susceptible-exposed-infected-removed
			(SEIR) compartment model and the assumption
			that the infectious cases with symptoms
			occurred before 26 January, 2020 are resulted
			from free propagation without intervention, we
			estimate the basic reproduction number of
			2019-nCoV according to the reported
			confirmed cases and suspected cases, as well
			as the theoretical estimated number of infected
			cases by other research teams, together with
			some epidemiological determinants learned
			from the severe acute respiratory syndrome
			(SARS). RESULTS: The basic reproduction
			number fall between 2.8 and 3.3 by using the
			real-time reports on the number of
			2019-nCoV-infected cases from People's Daily
			in China and fall between 3.2 and 3.9 on the
			basis of the predicted number of infected cases
			from international colleagues. CONCLUSIONS:
			The early transmission ability of 2019-nCoV is
			close to or slightly higher than SARS. It is a
			controllable disease with moderate to high
			transmissibility. Timely and effective control
			measures are needed to prevent the further
			transmissions.

			©2020 Chinese Cochrane Center, West China
			Hospital of Sichuan University and John Wiley &
			Sons Australia, Ltd.

			DOI: 10.1111/jebm.12376 PMID: 32048815

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