*nlm.life
			PubMed Journals: J Clin Med

  Source:		PMID: 32024089


    		J Clin Med. 2020 Feb 1;9(2). pii: E388. doi:
     		10.3390/jcm9020388.

			Estimating the Unreported Number of Novel
			Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) Cases in China in the
			First Half of January 2020: A Data-Driven
			Modelling Analysis of the Early Outbreak.

			Zhao S(1)(2), Musa SS(3), Lin Q(4), Ran J(5),
			Yang G(6)(7), Wang W(8), Lou Y(3), Yang L(9),
			Gao D(10), He D(3), Wang MH(1)(2).

			Author Information
			(1) JC School of Public Health and Primary
			Care, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong
			Kong 999077, China.
			(2) Shenzhen Research Institute of Chinese
			University of Hong Kong, Shenzhen 518060,
			China.
			(3) Department of Applied Mathematics, Hong
			Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong
			999077, China.
			(4) Michigan Institute for Data Science,
			University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan, MI
			48104, USA.
			(5) School of Public Health, Li Ka Shing Faculty
			of Medicine, University of Hong Kong, Hong
			Kong 999077, China.
			(6) Department of Orthopaedics and
			Traumatology, Chinese University of Hong
			Kong, Hong Kong 999077, China.
			(7) SH Ho Scoliosis Research Lab, Joint
			Scoliosis Research Center of Chinese University
			of Hong Kong and Nanjing University, Hong
			Kong 999077, China.
			(8) School of Mathematics and Statistics,
			Huaiyin Normal University, Huaian 223300,
			China.
			(9) School of Nursing, Hong Kong Polytechnic
			University, Hong Kong 999077, China.
			(10) Department of Mathematics, Shanghai
			Normal University, Shanghai 200234, China.

			BACKGROUND: In December 2019, an
			outbreak of respiratory illness caused by a
			novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) emerged in
			Wuhan, China and has swiftly spread to other
			parts of China and a number of foreign
			countries. The 2019-nCoV cases might have
			been under-reported roughly from 1 to 15
			January 2020, and thus we estimated the
			number of unreported cases and the basic
			reproduction number, R0, of 2019-nCoV.
			METHODS: We modelled the epidemic curve of
			2019-nCoV cases, in mainland China from 1
			December 2019 to 24 January 2020 through
			the exponential growth. The number of
			unreported cases was determined by the
			maximum likelihood estimation. We used the
			serial intervals (SI) of infection caused by two
			other well-known coronaviruses (CoV),
			Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS)
			and Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS)
			CoVs, as approximations of the unknown SI for
			2019-nCoV to estimate R0. RESULTS: We
			confirmed that the initial growth phase followed
			an exponential growth pattern. The
			under-reporting was likely to have resulted in
			469 (95% CI: 403-540) unreported cases from
			1 to 15 January 2020. The reporting rate after
			17 January 2020 was likely to have increased
			21-fold (95% CI: 18-25) in comparison to the
			situation from 1 to 17 January 2020 on
			average. We estimated the R0 of 2019-nCoV
			at 2.56 (95% CI: 2.49-2.63). CONCLUSION:
			The under-reporting was likely to have occurred
			during the first half of January 2020 and should
			be considered in future investigation.

			DOI: 10.3390/jcm9020388 PMID: 32024089

			Conflict of interest statement: The authors
			declare no conflict of interest.

     			                         Tweet       Print